Africa has made enormous progress in expanding mobile networks, but experts say the continent now faces a more difficult challenge: turning connectivity into meaningful economic participation.
Mobile broadband coverage across Africa has reached almost 90 per cent of the population, according to data presented by the GSMA at the Nigeria Digital Connectivity Investment Forum in Abuja.
Yet access to a network does not necessarily mean people are using it.
Across Africa, the gap between people who live within mobile broadband coverage and those who actually use mobile internet stands at about 63 per cent, compared with a global average of 38 per cent.
Nigeria faces a similar challenge.
The country has approximately 195 million active mobile lines, equivalent to about 90 per cent teledensity against a population of 242 million. But smartphone ownership was only 27 per cent in 2024, while the country’s mobile usage gap was close to 60 per cent.
The numbers point to a fundamental shift in Africa’s digital challenge.
The question is no longer simply whether people can connect.
It is whether they can afford to connect, trust digital services and use connectivity productively.
Coverage Is Only the Beginning
Presenting a paper titled “Connectivity to Economic Value,” GSMA Director of Industry Services Kanwulia Okafor captured the issue in a simple phrase: “Coverage is an input. Productive use is the outcome.”
The distinction is increasingly important as governments and investors pour billions into telecommunications infrastructure.
Mobile technology already contributes an estimated 7.8 per cent of Africa’s GDP, according to the GSMA, compared with 6.4 per cent globally.
But the organisation believes the economic contribution could be substantially larger if more people were able to move from basic connectivity to regular and productive digital usage.
Three barriers stand out: device affordability, digital skills and the relevance of digital services.
A person may live within range of a high-speed mobile network but remain effectively excluded from the digital economy if a smartphone is too expensive, data costs are prohibitive or digital services are difficult to understand and use.
Nigeria’s Connectivity Demand Is Accelerating
The issue is particularly important for Nigeria because demand for digital services is expanding rapidly.
The Nigerian Communications Commission estimates that the country’s mobile subscriber base could reach approximately 350 million by 2036.
Meanwhile, data consumption is expected to grow by roughly 20 per cent annually.
That growth is already visible.
Nigeria’s total data consumption increased from about 1.13 million terabytes in July 2025 to 1.66 million terabytes in July 2026, representing an increase of nearly 47 per cent in just one year, according to NCC figures presented at the forum.
The increase reflects growing reliance on smartphones, cloud services, streaming, digital platforms and other data-intensive applications.
It also creates an infrastructure challenge.
As more Nigerians come online and existing users consume increasing amounts of data, telecom operators will need to expand and modernise networks while maintaining service quality.
The Power Problem Could Become Even Bigger
Digital expansion is also creating a growing relationship between telecommunications and electricity infrastructure.
By 2030, power demand from data centres in Nigeria is expected to double, highlighting the amount of energy required to support the country’s digital economy.
That means future digital infrastructure planning cannot focus exclusively on fibre networks, mobile towers and spectrum.
Reliable electricity will increasingly be just as important.
Bolaji Balogun, Chief Executive Officer of Chapel Hill Denham, argued that policymakers should treat power as a core component of telecommunications infrastructure.
He also called for the development of data-centre corridors across Nigeria and better planning for rapidly increasing data demand.
The challenge is significant because digital infrastructure requires long-term capital, while many conventional financing structures are designed around shorter investment horizons.
Banks Cannot Fund Nigeria’s Digital Future Alone
Balogun said Nigeria would need to draw on a broader pool of long-term capital to finance the infrastructure required for the next phase of digital growth.
Commercial banks, he argued, cannot shoulder the entire burden.
Instead, capital markets, pension funds and insurance companies could provide the longer-tenor financing needed for infrastructure projects whose returns may take years to materialise.
The argument reflects the scale of investment required.
Building fibre networks, data centres, power systems and other digital infrastructure requires substantial upfront capital.
Those assets also need to be expanded ahead of demand rather than after networks become congested.
Without long-term financing, Nigeria could struggle to keep infrastructure investment ahead of the rapid increase in data consumption.
Three Things Could Turn Connectivity Into Economic Growth
The GSMA identified three factors it considers essential for converting connectivity into broader economic value: trust, access and transformation.
Trust
People and businesses need confidence that digital services are safe.
Cybercrime, fraud and identity theft can discourage consumers from using digital financial services and other online platforms.
The GSMA pointed to the use of network signals by banks and fintech companies in South Africa as an example of how telecommunications data can help strengthen fraud detection.
Greater trust could encourage more people to use digital payments, banking, commerce and other online services.
Access
Network coverage means little if people cannot afford a suitable device.
Affordable smartphones therefore remain central to closing Africa’s usage gap.
Language is another important factor.
Africa is home to more than 30 per cent of the world’s languages, making local-language digital interfaces increasingly important if online services are to reach a wider population.
Digital literacy also matters.
People need the skills to use smartphones and online services effectively, safely and productively.
Transformation
The third step involves embedding connectivity into everyday economic activity.
Technologies such as artificial intelligence, cloud computing and the Internet of Things can transform businesses when they become part of normal workflows rather than existing as standalone tools.
The GSMA said almost 80 per cent of African mobile operators identify digital transformation partnerships as a primary enterprise objective.
That suggests telecom companies increasingly see their role as extending beyond simply providing network access.
Agriculture, Manufacturing and Services Could Capture the Biggest Gains
The economic opportunity is particularly significant across Africa’s major productive sectors.
GSMA Intelligence estimates that by 2030, services, manufacturing and agriculture will account for about 65 per cent of mobile-enabled economic impact in Africa.
In services, connectivity can improve commerce, logistics and professional services.
Manufacturers can use digital technologies to improve automation, monitor operations, reduce downtime and increase visibility across supply chains.
For agriculture, mobile platforms can provide farmers with access to market information, weather and agricultural advice, digital payments and traceability systems.
Other sectors—including finance, construction, ICT and public administration—are also expected to benefit.
But the GSMA argues that the largest productivity gains will come when connectivity is integrated into mainstream economic activity.
Azerbaijan Offers a Lesson for Nigeria
An international example presented at the forum illustrated how connectivity investment can translate into wider economic activity.
Karim Yaici, Lead Industry Analyst at Ookla, highlighted Azerbaijan’s Online Azerbaijan initiative.
The programme expanded fibre coverage from just 9 per cent to more than 95 per cent within five years, while median download speeds increased almost ninefold.
More importantly, the expansion was associated with increased business formation.
Yaici said each additional broadband connection per 100 residents was linked to as much as a 3.7 per cent increase in firm registrations.
Connectivity and local economic activity also increased together in 95 per cent of districts examined.
The lesson for Nigeria is that speed and coverage alone do not determine economic impact.
Adoption and productive use matter just as much.
Nigeria Needs to Close the Usage Gap
For Nigeria, the next stage of the digital revolution will therefore be more complicated than simply building more telecom infrastructure.
The country must ensure that people can afford smartphones, access reliable networks, understand digital services and trust the platforms they use.
Businesses must also be able to integrate connectivity into their operations.
That will require investment not only in mobile networks but also in fibre, electricity, data centres, cloud infrastructure and cybersecurity.
The NCC’s Executive Vice Chairman, Dr Amin Maida, said the telecommunications sector’s development over the past 25 years demonstrated the importance of sound policy, transparent regulation and investor confidence.
He said the regulator remained focused on encouraging investment while protecting consumers and promoting competition.
But he also acknowledged that rising demand would require continued investment in network expansion, modernisation and quality-of-service improvements.
The Digital Economy Needs More Than Towers and Fibre
The transformation of Nigeria’s digital economy is entering a new phase.
The country has already built a substantial telecommunications base, but rapidly increasing data consumption means infrastructure must continue expanding.
At the same time, millions of people remain on the wrong side of the usage gap.
That makes affordability, digital skills and trust just as important as network coverage.
Swedish Ambassador to Nigeria Anna Westerholm also highlighted gaps involving connectivity quality, affordability and supporting infrastructure, stressing the need for government, industry and investors to work together.
Better data on network performance and user experience, she noted, could help identify investment priorities, reduce uncertainty and strengthen investor confidence.
From Connectivity to Economic Value
Africa’s digital opportunity is no longer simply about getting people online.
It is about determining what happens after they connect.
For Nigeria, the stakes are particularly high. A rapidly expanding population, rising smartphone use and explosive growth in data consumption are creating enormous demand for digital infrastructure.
But unless that infrastructure is paired with affordable devices, digital skills, trusted services, reliable electricity and long-term investment, a significant portion of the population could remain excluded from the economic benefits of connectivity.
The message from the GSMA and other experts is therefore clear: Africa has made significant progress in building digital networks. The next challenge is turning those networks into engines of productivity, business creation and inclusive economic growth.
For Nigeria, closing the usage gap could ultimately prove just as important as expanding the network itself.
