Artificial intelligence may not trigger the mass unemployment crisis many fear. But according to new McKinsey research, millions of American workers could still be forced into entirely new careers as AI reshapes the labour market over the next decade.
The biggest challenge may not be a shortage of jobs.
It could be a shortage of workers with the right skills, credentials and geographic access to the jobs that are actually growing.
A new analysis from the McKinsey Global Institute estimates that approximately 11 million US workers may need to change occupations by 2035 as artificial intelligence, demographic shifts and other economic forces reshape demand for labour.
That would mean roughly 770,000 workers changing occupations every year—about 3.6 times the historical average.
For workers whose jobs are exposed to automation, the message is clear: the future of work may depend less on whether AI eliminates their current position and more on whether they can move successfully into the next one.
AI May Create Jobs—but Workers Will Have to Move
McKinsey’s research challenges the simple narrative that artificial intelligence will inevitably destroy more jobs than it creates.
Instead, the report suggests that the US economy could experience job growth overall while millions of individual workers still face significant disruption.
The problem is one of job migration.
Tanguy Catlin, a director and senior partner at McKinsey Global Institute and co-author of the report, says workers in declining occupations will need pathways into roles where demand is increasing.
But those pathways are far from equally accessible.
McKinsey estimates that only about one in seven displaced workers will have a direct route into a growing occupation without requiring significant retraining.
Nearly half of workers leaving declining occupations could face what the researchers describe as an “unpaved pathway”—meaning they may need new credentials, certifications or substantial additional training before qualifying for another career.
Office Jobs, Retail and Logistics Face Major Disruption
The workers most likely to need occupational changes are concentrated in several large employment categories.
McKinsey estimates that more than 75% of workers who may need to transition are currently employed in:
- Office and administrative support
- Retail and sales
- Transportation and logistics
These occupations include many roles where repetitive tasks, information processing or routine workflows can increasingly be supported or automated by technology.
That does not necessarily mean every job in these industries will disappear.
Instead, individual positions may evolve, with workers performing different tasks or relying on new digital tools.
For some employees, however, the changes could be substantial enough to require a move into a different occupation altogether.
Healthcare and Construction Could Be Among the Biggest Winners
At the other end of the labour market, healthcare and construction stand out as sectors with strong potential for job growth through 2035.
Healthcare’s expansion is partly linked to demographic change.
People are living longer, increasing demand for healthcare services, home-based care, medical technicians and other occupations supporting an ageing population.
But that creates another challenge.
The number of younger people entering the workforce is being constrained by the decline in US birth rates that began after 2008.
In other words, demand for healthcare workers could increase at precisely the time when the labour force has fewer young workers available to fill those positions.
Construction also has significant potential for employment growth, creating another possible destination for workers displaced from shrinking occupations.
The Skills Gap Could Become the Real Problem
The central issue identified by McKinsey is the mismatch between the skills workers currently possess and those demanded by expanding occupations.
A worker leaving an administrative position, for example, may not automatically qualify for a healthcare or construction role.
Geography can also make transitions more difficult.
McKinsey considered several factors when assessing whether workers could realistically move from declining to growing occupations, including how closely existing skills match the requirements of the new job, whether professional credentials are necessary, potential changes in income, geographic availability and remote-work options.
Language requirements and employer hiring practices can also affect whether a transition is practical.
That means simply telling workers to “learn new skills” may not be enough.
Successful career transitions require realistic pathways from one occupation to another.
Lower-Paid Workers Face the Biggest Risk
The disruption is unlikely to be evenly distributed across the workforce.
According to McKinsey, lower-wage workers are 7.6 times more likely than higher-wage workers to need to transition into a new occupation.
Workers without a college degree are 1.8 times more likely to need an occupational change than those with a bachelor’s degree.
Younger workers are also 1.6 times more likely than prime-age workers to face a career transition.
Those figures highlight a potential contradiction in the AI revolution.
Automation could eliminate some lower-paying jobs while simultaneously creating opportunities for workers to move into better-paid occupations.
But that outcome is not guaranteed.
Workers need access to training, credentials and practical career pathways that allow them to make the jump.
Not Every Job Will Disappear
The future labour market will not simply consist of jobs that survive and jobs that vanish.
McKinsey estimates that roughly 25% of the workforce could have more than 30% of the time spent on their current tasks reallocated.
That could mean workers remain in the same occupation but perform a substantially different mix of activities.
AI may handle certain routine tasks, while employees spend more time on decision-making, communication, problem-solving, relationship management or other activities that require human judgement.
For many workers, therefore, the future may involve job redesign rather than job replacement.
The challenge will be adapting to those changing responsibilities.
Three Skill Groups Workers Should Develop
McKinsey identifies three broad categories of skills that could improve workers’ ability to navigate the changing labour market.
1. Essential Skills
These are skills required across more than 75% of occupations expected to experience growing demand.
They include problem-solving, leadership, communication, people management, process management and attention to detail.
These capabilities are valuable because they can transfer across multiple industries and occupations.
2. Enabling Skills
The second category includes transferable capabilities associated with higher-paying roles, which McKinsey says have average salaries of around $83,000 or more.
They include innovation, decision-making, collaboration and critical thinking.
These skills can help workers move beyond narrowly defined tasks and take on responsibilities involving judgement and complex problem-solving.
3. Empowering Skills
The third group focuses on capabilities that have become increasingly important as technology evolves.
These include AI fluency, adaptability, resilience, curiosity and a willingness to learn.
Rather than treating AI as a skill reserved for technology professionals, workers across industries may increasingly need enough understanding to use AI tools effectively in their everyday roles.
The Education System Faces a Bigger Challenge
The scale of potential workforce disruption also raises questions about how the US approaches education and retraining.
Traditional education systems have largely focused on preparing young people for their first careers.
But if hundreds of thousands of existing workers need to change occupations every year, lifelong learning could become much more important.
The challenge will be building training systems that are affordable, accessible and closely connected to actual employment opportunities.
Workers need more than courses. They need pathways that connect training to credentials, credentials to jobs and jobs to sustainable career progression.
What Workers Can Do Now
For employees in occupations exposed to automation, waiting until disruption arrives may be risky.
Developing transferable skills now could expand future options.
AI literacy is becoming increasingly valuable, but it should not come at the expense of broader capabilities such as communication, critical thinking, adaptability and problem-solving.
Workers should also pay attention to where employment demand is growing in their region and industry.
The most valuable career strategy may not be predicting exactly which jobs AI will eliminate.
It may be developing enough flexibility to move when the labour market changes.
The Real AI Jobs Story Is More Complicated
The McKinsey findings offer a more nuanced picture of AI and employment.
Artificial intelligence could contribute to job creation rather than simply destroying work. But that does not mean workers will automatically benefit from the transition.
As many as 11 million Americans may need to change occupations by 2035, with hundreds of thousands potentially making that transition every year.
For some, the shift could lead to higher-paying and more resilient careers.
For others, the lack of training, credentials or access to growing industries could turn technological progress into prolonged economic disruption.
The defining challenge of the AI era may therefore not be whether there will be enough jobs.
It may be whether workers can get from the jobs that are disappearing to the jobs that are emerging.
